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Linear Regression Dynamic Model for the Passive Extra Large Coal-fired Power Plants

Yongguan Mai, Hongyu Ning, Susheng Wang


To forecast and gain the profit, balance the coaled-fired power and other renewable power, basing on the firm theory in microeconomics, using two factor linear dynamic regression method, combining with the reality of a typical extra large coal-fired power plant, the article built a profit model and pointed out that the coal price of the last month and the quantity of the electricity were the main factors to determine the profit of the plant in this month. Plant should make forward to control the price of the coal, when the coal price is low, we should buy more to spare. Hedge are effective means to control, insure and add profit to an energy company and the corporation whose profit are mainly depend on the bulk raw materials. Rational using the parameter of coal price and the quantity of the coal-fired electricity will be a useful method to accelerate the low-carbon economics development and its related financial products and mechanism.


profit, regression, model, coal-fired, power plant.

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