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Forecasted Changes of Biological Cycle and Carbon Balance In Temperate Forest Ecosystems under Global Warming

E.G. Kolomyts, G.S. Rozenberg

Abstract


The functional branch of the topoecological concept of prediction based on empirical-statistical modeling is considered. It has been established that the changes in the two branches of small biological cycle, production and detritus were predicted in broadleaf, mixed, and light-coniferous forests of the Middle Volga Region are caused by the thermo-arid climatic trend. The general model scheme of the mechanism of transition from functional changes to structural transformation of ecosystems under the effect of global warming is describes. The prognosis of changes of biological cycle and biotic regulation of the carbon cycle according to the known scenarios of forthcoming greenhouse warming is presented.

Keywords


discrete empirical-statistical modeling, landscape-ecological prediction, biological cycle, climatogenic successions, carbon balance

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