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Modeling Time Delay in an SEIRS Epidemic Model

Manju Agarwal, Archana Singh Bhadauria

Abstract


This paper deals with an epidemic model that incorporates constant recruitment rate, and disease latency. Time delay between the transition of individuals from exposed to infective class for the diseases with long incubation/latent period is introduced. The basic reproduction number is found and it is proved to be a sharp threshold value that completely determines the stability dynamics and the outcome of the disease. The model is analyzed using the stability theory of differential equations and numerical simulation. The model analysis shows that long incubation/latent period contributes toward the endemicity of diseases.

Keywords


SEIRS model, Saturating contact rate, Stability, endemic.

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