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A Causal study between CO2 Emissions, Electricity Consumption and GDP in India

I. Krishna Murthy


This study examines the co-integration relationships among the per capita GDP, per capita electricity consumption and per capita co2 emissions for India covering the period 1971 to 2006. All the data variables are non stationary in level form but are integrated of order one. Johansen’s rank procedure and Engle Granger VAR is used to determine the cointegration relation and direction of causality among the variables. Vector Error Correction Mechanism is used to study the short run behavior of co2 emissions. VAR model at lag 3 is used for short term forecasting of co2 emissions. Results have identified that the data variables are co-integrated and VAR is proved to be good tool for short term forecasting.


Co-Integration, CO2 Emissions, Forecasting, Non-Stationary

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