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Analytical and Cartographic Predictive Modeling of Carbon Balance in Temperate Forest Ecosystems under Global Warming

E. G. Kolomyts, G. S. ROZENBERG, L. S. Sharaya

Abstract


By the example of Volga river basin the experience of application of landscape-ecological me-thods for evaluations of carbon cycle biotic regulation in forest ecosystems is presented. Me-thods are described for constructing analytical and cartographic empirical statistical models that make it possible to reveal local mechanisms of biotic regulation and identify the zonal/regional types of forest formations capable of stabilizing the continental biosphere in the changing climate. The prognosis of changes of biotic regulation of the carbon cycle according to the scenarios of forthcoming greenhouse warming by global E GISS model are described. The local and regional prognostic maps of carbon content changes in forest of Zhyguli low-mountain range and the whole Oka river basin are presented.

Keywords


ecosystem, biogeocoenoses, climatic changes, empirical statistical modeling, carto-gramming, ecological prediction

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