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Detecting influences of climatic and fisheries factors in the Gulf of Cádiz using Dynamic Factor Analysis

L. Castilla Mora, J.J. García del Hoyo


Many factors are believed to influence the catches of fish, molluscs and crustaceans, and this paper has produced some results that link these landings to sea surface temperature (SST) and the gross register tonnage (GRT) of the fishing fleet.
We took the landed catches of 14 species from the Spanish zone of the Gulf of Cádiz (SW Spain) as a dependent variable in order to study the possible effects of certain climatic and fisheries factors –the explanatory variables– on these species. The time series of the landings (1979-2009) were analysed by using dynamic factor analysis (DFA), and the optimum DFA model contained SST, rainfall levels and GRT as explanatory variables as well as three common trends. The study revealed that SST, GRT and rainfall influence the size of the catches of certain species. Gross register tonnage in particular affected the landings of 10 of the 14 species, and the research also established some common trends among the species studied.


dynamic factor analysis, common trends, fisheries, climatic factors, time series, landings.

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