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Long-term Population Dynamics and Land-use Transitions in a Mediterranean Country: a Data Mining Approach

L. Salvati


This study investigates long-term population dynamics (1862-2009) in the light of forest transition theory with the aim to verify the temporal coherence of demographic and land-use transformations at the country scale in Italy. An exploratory analysis of socio-environmental indicators is proposed using principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering. Results of the analysis identify four time intervals (1862-1891, 1892-1930, 1931-1976, 1977-2009) with homogeneous characteristics in both population and land-use attributes. These time intervals represent conditions of dynamic equilibrium between the environment and the local socioeconomic context, and highlight latent transitions in both population and land-use variables.


Forest expansion, Demographic dynamics, k-means clustering, Mediterranean region.

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