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How extreme events can affect a seemingly stabilized population: a stochastic rendition of Ricker’s model

S. Bhattacharya, S. Malakar, F. Smarandache

Abstract


Our paper computationally explores Ricker’s predator satiation model with the objective of studying how the extinction dynamics of an animal species having a twostage life-cycle is affected by a sudden spike in mortality due to an extraneous extreme event. Our simulation model has been designed and implemented using sockeye salmon population data based on a stochastic version of Ricker’s model; with the shock size being reflected by a sudden reduction in the carrying capacity of the environment for this species. Our results show that even for a relatively marginal increase in the negative impact of an extreme event on the carrying capacity of the environment, a species with an otherwise stable population may be driven close to extinction

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