Subscription or Fee Access
COVID-19 in 38 countries: a structural breaks approach
In this paper we estimate econometric models of daily data on the number of new cases from COVID-19. Our primary purpose is to test for the presence of structural breaks in each time series and then to incorporate these breaks in the estimation process. Government Response Stringency Index is also included as explanatory variable and interacting with the factor variables resulting from the breaks. We found different number and different dates for the structural breaks across the countries. We also observe that the last structural break is more or less contemporaneous for most of countries (24 in 38). By considering the curvature of the quadratic function we can guess if the peak already occurred. Latin America, Australia, Asia and Africa countries seem to reach already the peak. The same conclusion does not apply to European countries, USA and Canada. Including the GRSI increases the fit significantly.
Quadratic function, likelihood ratio test, break dates, stringency.
Disclaimer/Regarding indexing issue:
We have provided the online access of all issues and papers to the indexing agencies (as given on journal web site). It’s depend on indexing agencies when, how and what manner they can index or not. Hence, we like to inform that on the basis of earlier indexing, we can’t predict the today or future indexing policy of third party (i.e. indexing agencies) as they have right to discontinue any journal at any time without prior information to the journal. So, please neither sends any question nor expects any answer from us on the behalf of third party i.e. indexing agencies.Hence, we will not issue any certificate or letter for indexing issue. Our role is just to provide the online access to them. So we do properly this and one can visit indexing agencies website to get the authentic information.