Estimation and Forecasting of Urban Population of Male and Female for Different Regions of India Using Growth Models

Abstract

The region wise study of urbanization of India is an important phenomenon to understand the urbanization with socio-demographic characteristic of the nation. In the present study, India is divided into five regions VIZ. Northern, Southern, Eastern, Western and Central regions with respect to gender. The data for the study is collected from census of India from 1901 to 2011 census. For estimation of urban population for male and female two growth models are used- Modified Exponential and Gompertz models, the parameters of the models are estimated by using Method of Partial Sums and testing of accuracy and bias, MALPE and MAPE is calculated. The analysis of the study shows Western region shows highest level of urbanization whereas Eastern region has lowest level, estimation and forecasting results of the model demonstrates that modified exponential model good fit compared to Gompertz model for all the regions except male and total urban population in eastern region, measure bias shows Modified exponential shows underestimates and Gompertz shows overestimates for all regions of India except Eastern Region as this region shows overestimate for both the curves.