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Construction of Global Farmland Area Change Model and Future Change Prediction

Wang Chengjun, Fei Ximin

Abstract


Farmland area is the basic condition for food safety, it has important political and economical significance to understand the future change trend of global farmland area, and the global farmland area fluctuates in recent years. In this paper, time series analysis method was adopted and historical data about global farmland for the past 50 years were applied to build certain time series analysis model, random time series analysis model and combined model of global farmland area which can predict global farmland area. The research results show that fitting and prediction accuracy of combined model for global farmland area series is the highest, the historical change process of global farmland is composed of certain factors and random factors, and it is predicted that global farmland area will rise slightly in fluctuation in the future.

Keywords


global farmland area, time series analysis, model construction.

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