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Grey Forecasting Model to Forecast the Water Shortage Risk

Fanyong Meng, Jisong Wu


Grey forecasting model has been developed by a new background value formula and boundary correction methods. The study indicates that grey forecasting model for evaluating water shortage risk during 2006-2011 in Beijing is more effective when compared with the traditional model. The water shortage risk in the next few years in Beijing is forecasted at medium risk by using the improved grey forecasting model. It means that the adoption of measures for effective risk management of water resources is an urgent task. Demand-oriented measures are proposed to solve the problem of water shortage risk in Beijing.


grey system, grey forecasting model, GM (1, 1), water shortage risk, forecast.

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