Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

Estimation of Extreme Value at Risk in Rwanda Exchange Rate

Ntawihebasenga Jean de Dieu, P.N. Mwita, J.K. Mung’atu

Abstract


Estimating the probability of rare and extreme events is a crucial issue in the risk estimation of exchange rate returns. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a well developed theory in the field of probability that studies the distribution of extreme realizations of a given distribution function, or of a stochastic process, satisfying certain assumptions. This work has fitted the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) to the excess returns assuming the residuals are independent and identically distributed. The results are used to estimate extreme Value at Risk (VaR) in Rwanda exchange rate process.

Keywords


Exchange rate, EVT approach, Generalized Pareto Distribution, Value at Risk, Maximum Likelihood Estimation and confidence interval.

Full Text:

PDF


Disclaimer/Regarding indexing issue:

We have provided the online access of all issues and papers to the indexing agencies (as given on journal web site). It’s depend on indexing agencies when, how and what manner they can index or not. Hence, we like to inform that on the basis of earlier indexing, we can’t predict the today or future indexing policy of third party (i.e. indexing agencies) as they have right to discontinue any journal at any time without prior information to the journal. So, please neither sends any question nor expects any answer from us on the behalf of third party i.e. indexing agencies.Hence, we will not issue any certificate or letter for indexing issue. Our role is just to provide the online access to them. So we do properly this and one can visit indexing agencies website to get the authentic information.