Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

Combined Forecasting Techniques for Epidemiological Surveillance Trend

S. Sukparungsee, Y. Areepong

Abstract


This research aims to study combined forecasting techniques by weighted based on Minimum Mean Absolute Error Method (MMAE) with goal programming. There are three classical individual forecast techniques; classical decomposition, exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins techniques and combined forecasts models are studied and compared. Secondary data are used to forecast the patient numbers quarterly with diagnosis of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in Thailand for the period of 2003—2011, out of which data till December 2012 were used to check the forecasting ability of the model. Results during this period confirm that Minimum Mean Absolute Error Method (MMAE) provides a better forecasting of patient numbers with DHF than others models. Efficiency comparison of forecasting models by using MAPE shows that the proposed method is the best among all these models.

Keywords


Epidemiological, Combined Forecasting, Minimum Mean Absolute Error Method.

Full Text:

PDF


Disclaimer/Regarding indexing issue:

We have provided the online access of all issues and papers to the indexing agencies (as given on journal web site). It’s depend on indexing agencies when, how and what manner they can index or not. Hence, we like to inform that on the basis of earlier indexing, we can’t predict the today or future indexing policy of third party (i.e. indexing agencies) as they have right to discontinue any journal at any time without prior information to the journal. So, please neither sends any question nor expects any answer from us on the behalf of third party i.e. indexing agencies.Hence, we will not issue any certificate or letter for indexing issue. Our role is just to provide the online access to them. So we do properly this and one can visit indexing agencies website to get the authentic information.