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Modeling Flood and Other Factors Effects on Demand Currency (Outflow) in Jakarta Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)

Dwi Endah Kusrini, Suhartono, Rosyid Abdillah, Mukhtasor


Indonesia is a country that is highly vulnerable to natural disasters and some catastrophic events with large scale or a small scale but with great frequency can affect the micro economic conditions affected region. Jakarta is a region at the centre of the central government as well as the country's economy so that if there is a disaster eg flooding events with high frequency is expected to affect macroeconomic conditions in Jakarta and Indonesia, therefore in this study analysis and modelling of the effects of flood events and other factors such as the exchange rate against the USD, SBI, consumer Price Index, events calendar variation effect on outflow Eid (withdrawal) of the money supply by using modelling ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag). The result shows that, the model with the addition of the effects of variations ARDL calendar, monthly and seasonal dummy flood events are better able to explain all the variables both economic variables. Especially for variable flood event 7 times in a month that occurred in July 2013 gave a considerable influence on the withdrawal of currency in Jakarta amounting to 10.936 trillion rupiahs.


Flood; ARDL; Outflow; Calendar variation

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