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Technological Change, Equipment Replacement, and Forecast Horizons

Yuri Yatsenko


The equipment replacement under technological change is a developing dynamic system with controlled delay (unknown equipment lifetime) in changing environment. The paper analyzes discrete and continuous-time models of equipment replacement and compares their qualitative dynamics. In particular, it explains the source of minimum forecast horizon property in the discrete models and shows that there is no forecast horizon in continuous models. The forecast horizon is the optimization horizon such that the first optimal lifetime remains the same for any longer horizon

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