Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

On the Dynamical Extended Range Predictability of Active/Break Spells of the Indian Summer Monsoon: Sensitivity to Atmospheric Initial Conditions

P. Krishnan, Suchithra Sundaram


Numerical simulation experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) and diagnostic analysis of observed data products (reanalysis and reforecast data) are conducted in order to understand the dynamical predictability of the active- break monsoon spells over the Indian summer monsoon region. In particular, the dependence of the potential predictability of the model forecasts to atmospheric initial states during strong and weak monsoon conditions is examined. For this purpose, a series of twin ensemble simulation experiments were performed starting from strong
monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) initial conditions for a 6-year (2000-2005) period.

Full Text:


Disclaimer/Regarding indexing issue:

We have provided the online access of all issues and papers to the indexing agencies (as given on journal web site). It’s depend on indexing agencies when, how and what manner they can index or not. Hence, we like to inform that on the basis of earlier indexing, we can’t predict the today or future indexing policy of third party (i.e. indexing agencies) as they have right to discontinue any journal at any time without prior information to the journal. So, please neither sends any question nor expects any answer from us on the behalf of third party i.e. indexing agencies.Hence, we will not issue any certificate or letter for indexing issue. Our role is just to provide the online access to them. So we do properly this and one can visit indexing agencies website to get the authentic information. Also: DOI is paid service which provided by a third party. We never mentioned that we go for this for our any journal. However, journal have no objection if author go directly for this paid DOI service.