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Hydrological Modeling of Natunhat Watershed, West Bengal of the Ajay River Catchment under Changed Climate Scenario

Sujana Dhar, Asis Mazumdar


It is known that variability of climate has a pronounced impact on water supplies, instream conditions, aquatic habitat, flora and fauna. Global warming is altering ecology in complex ways. A study of soil moisture accounting parameters was conducted for the Ajay river catchment on the Natunhat watershed, West Bengal, to determine the water availability scenario under a climate change scenario. The key impacts of climate change in ecological and hydrological systems need to be assessed for future flow regimes. A distributed hydrological model HEC-HMS was used to quantify the impact of climate change on the water resources of the Ajay river catchment outlet at Natunha, after calibration using historical data and a GIS coupled with RS techniques. The study uses the HadRm daily weather data to determine the control (present) and GHG (future) water availability in space and time. A total of 15 years of simulation spanning the entire Ajay river catchment has been conducted. Five years were devoted to control (present) 1997–2001 and the remaining 10 years (2040–2050) devoted to GHG (future) climate scenario. Soil evapotranspiration, soil infiltration and canopy overflow are seen to decrease whereas canopy evapotranspiration increases over the projected period. Streamflow is seen to decrease by a maximum of 82.24% over the projected period of 2041-50 during the changed climate scenario.


Soil Moisture Accounting, HEC HMS SMA, Ajay River Basin, Future water availability Scenario and Regional Climate Model, Climate change and ecological flow regime.

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