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Bayesian Analysis on Effect of Industry Structure to Economy Growth

H. Y. Zhang, D. Q. He, Y. F. Guo


This paper tests the existence of difference of economic growth effect of industry structure between rising periods of economic growth and down periods in China. It is found that rising of the growth rate of the Primary Industry can boost the level of GDP, but rising of the growth rate of the Secondary Industry can reduce the growth rate of GDP. By using of BOX-COX transformation, it is proved that CES production function is superior to C-D model obviously when being used to simulate China data.


Regression, data structure, prediction, simulation.

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